来源：经济学人 4.09 社论 Why Macron matters 为什么马克龙这么重要？France’s president is a cautionary tale for centrists everywhere

法国总统的经历向世界各地的中间派发出了警告When he was first elected president of France in 2017, Emmanuel Macron immediately became a standard­bearer

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[江城1] for radical centrism. He was young, clever and eminently reasonable. Also, it was a time of panic for liberals.

2017年马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)首次当选法国总统时，他立即成为激进的中间派的领袖他年轻，聪明，又人情练达而且，那是自由派的恐慌时期Britain had voted the previous year to leave the European Union. America had just elected Donald Trump. Across Europe populists were climbing in the polls, even in sober places like Sweden, Denmark and Germany. The far left were in power in Greece. Italy’s Northern League would soon enter government as half of an all­populist coalition that flirted with leaving the euro and rebuffed migrants rescued in the Mediterranean. All around the rich world politicians who promised to raise walls, ignore experts and turn back the clock to an imaginary golden age were in the ascendant. No wonder Mr Macron’s triumph in one of Europe’s most pivotal countries brought sighs of relief. 。

英国在前一年投票决定退出欧盟美国刚刚选出唐纳德-特朗普在整个欧洲，民粹主义者得票率不断攀升，甚至在瑞典、丹麦和德国这样清醒的地方也是如此极左派在希腊上台意大利的北方联盟很快就会进入政府，作为半个民粹主义联盟，该联盟试图脱离欧元，并拒绝在地中海救援的移民。

在整个富裕世界，那些承诺要筑起高墙、无视专家、让时间倒流到想象中的黄金时代的政治家们正在崛起难怪马克龙先生在欧洲最关键的国家之一的胜利带来了松一口气的感觉On April 10th Mr Macron will face voters once again. This time he is running not so much on his aspirations for the radical centre, but on his record as a

nuts­and­bolts[江城2] reformer, on his vision for world affairs, and as a leader who has reinvigorated French politics. In one sense, Mr Macron looks as if he will soon be able to say his

record has been vindicated. Our election model gives him a 98% chance of making the second round on April 24th and a 78% chance of winning re­election (albeit a number that has recently been shrinking—see Briefing). Victory would be a remarkable achievement.

Not since Charles de Gaulle in 1965 have the French re­elected a president who has a majority in the assembly.

However, the closer you look, the more liberals around the world should see Mr Macron as a cautionary tale.

4月10日马克龙将再次参选但这次他不是为了激进的中间主义的抱负参选，而是作为一名改革者，怀揣对全球事务的愿景，以一名想要革新法国政治的领导人身份参选马克龙先生似乎很快就能说他的政绩得到了回报本刊的选举模型认为他有98%的可能进入4月24日的第二轮选举，有78%的可能赢得最终的连任（尽管这一数字最近有所下降）。

马克龙获胜，将会是一项了不起的成就自1965年戴高乐以来，法国还没有过一位连任总统能在议会中占据多数席位然而，越是深入考察，全球的自由派就越应以马克龙为鉴It is in economic policy that his centrism

[江城3] has been most successful. Before taking office in 2017, he argued that France should be open to globalisation, but try harder to equip its citizens with the skills they needed to adapt to change. His pro­market labour and regulatory reforms embodied this philosophy and they have led to an impressive rebound in employment and new­business creation. Rather than trying to preserve redundant jobs, he has boosted training and early education. At the European level, he was a driving force behind the establishment of the NGEU, a €750bn ($818bn) jointly guaranteed fund to help Europe’s weaker economies dig themselves out of the hole into which covid­19 had cast them.

正是在经济政策方面，他的中间主义政策取得了最大的成功在2017年上任之前，他认为法国应该对全球化持开放态度，但要更加努力地使其公民具备适应变化所需的技能他对劳动力和监管机构的市场化改革体现了这一理念，它们带来了就业率的回升以及新商业的涌现。

他没有试图保留多余的工作，而是加强了培训和早期教育在欧洲层面，他是建立国家经济联盟的推动者，这是一个7500亿欧元（8180亿美元）的联合担保基金，以帮助欧洲较弱的经济体从疫情的影响中走出来He has, however, left plenty to do in a second term. Mr Macron has been too eager to reach for the levers of state control, whether capping electricity prices or meddling in the management of hypermarkets. For all his

ENA[江城4]­honed competence, he has failed to restore hope to France’s left­behind. Though his supporters would be quick to point out that covid got in the way, he has failed to overhaul the labyrinthine pensions system.

不过他的第二任任期仍有大量工作要做无论是在限制电价还是干预大型超市管理，他都急于使用国家控制杠杆工具尽管在法国国家行政学院几经历练，他还是没能为法国弱势群体带去希望，也没能彻底改革错综复杂的养老金制度，虽然其支持者会说这是因为新冠疫情导致改革搁置了。

As an international statesman, Mr Macron correctly identified the threat to the Western order from a rising China and an irascible Russia. His solution was to attempt to boost the European Union—a forum where France’s voice counts—even if that undercut the institutions that bind the West together. Rather than confront Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, he argued for building bridges. He wanted to downplay NATO, which he accused of suffering “brain death”, by building up a European counterpart. Yet, as the war in Ukraine has shown, America’s role in defending Europe is indispensable. Although his efforts to defeat jihadists in the Sahel were courageous and laudable, they have yielded few results and are now unravelling. His dealings with a puerile post­Brexit Britain were

petulant—and just what Britain’s unserious prime minister wanted. 作为一名国际政治家，马克龙先生清楚地意识到了崛起的中国和暴躁的俄罗斯对西方秩序的威胁。

他的解决方案是加强欧盟--一个法国的声音很重要的论坛--即使这削弱了将西方联系在一起的其他机构他不主张与俄罗斯总统普京（Vladimir Putin）对抗，而是主张对话他想通过建立一个欧洲的对应组织来淡化被他指责为 "脑子不正常"的北约。

不过，乌克兰战争显示了美国在抵御欧洲方面不可或缺的角色尽管法国在萨赫勒地区打击圣战分子的努力是英勇且值得赞赏的，但却收效甚微，而且正在消弭在应对脱欧后英国的愚蠢行为时马克龙表现得不够老练，却正中了英国那位吊儿郎当的首相的下怀。

It is in reinvigorating French politics that Mr Macron has most fallen short. In the election in 2017 he trounced Marine Le Pen, a nostalgic nationalist, by 66% to 34%. If she makes it to the second round, which is likely, the polls today say Mr Macron would win only narrowly, by 53% to 47%. The proportion of French who tell pollsters that they will vote for a candidate of the nationalist right or the anti­capitalist left in the first round is 51%, slightly more than voted that way in 2017.

在重振法国政治方面，马克龙先生做得最差在2017年的选举中，他以66%对34%的比例击败了怀旧的民族主义者马琳-勒庞如果她能进入第二轮选举（这很有可能），今天的民意调查显示，马克龙先生将以53%对47%的微弱优势获胜。

告诉民调机构他们将在第一轮投票中投票给民族主义右派或反资本主义左派候选人的法国人比例为51%，比2017年的投票比例略高In other words, five years of government by the world’s centrist standard­bearer has eroded support for the centre. There are many reasons for this. War and the pandemic have polarised politics, and not only in France. Mr Macron also sometimes repels voters with his aloof Jupiterian

[江城5] manner. Critics dub him “le président des riches”. The label sticks, partly because he cut France’s unworkable wealth tax, but mostly because his manner is that of the high­flying banker he once was. Mr Macron also faces a problem that responsible politicians always face when running against populists. He offers policies boringly grounded in reality. They say whatever will stir up voters, whether or not it is true (see Leader).

换句话说，这位中间派领袖在位五年反而削弱了民众对于中间派的支持，原因很多战争和疫情使得政治走向极端化，这不仅是法国的现实马克龙先生有时也会因其冷漠的朱庇特式态度而导致选民失望批评者称他为 "富人总统"这个标签存在，部分原因是他削减了法国不可行的财富税，但主要是因为他的态度是他曾经作为高高在上的银行家的姿态。

马克龙先生还面临着一个负责任的政治家在与民粹主义者竞选时总要面临的问题他提供的政策立足于现实却较为枯燥民粹主义者则总是投选民所好，无论是否真实The last reason is that Mr Macron has shown an illiberal

[江城6] neglect of institutions. Although the old politics had too many time­serving deputies, the parties of the centre­left and centre­right have become sideshows in presidential politics. True, responsibility for renewal lay with them, but he made their job harder by poaching their best talent. What is left is a contest between Mr Macron and a cacophony of extremists on the left and the right. As a result, the nearest thing France has to an opposition leader is Ms Le Pen—a historic admirer of Mr Putin who would flout EU rules by favouring French citizens for everything from housing to jobs. Her 21% chance of becoming president is alarmingly high.

最后一个原因是马克龙固执地漠视政治体制虽然旧政治中充斥着太多无所作为的二线政党，但是中左翼和中右翼政党已成为总统竞选中的陪跑者确实，他们应当承担起革新的责任，但是马克龙挖走了他们最优秀的人才，使其举步维艰。

于是，就剩下马克龙与左右两派极端分子之间互相竞争结果就是玛丽·勒庞成了法国最接近于反对派领袖的人她向来是普京的崇拜者，会在住房和就业等一切问题上为偏向法国人不惜公然无视欧盟法规勒庞有21%的可能当选法国总统，这个数字高得惊人。

In 2016 Mr Macron wrote: “If we don’t pull ourselves together in five years or ten years, [Ms Le Pen] will be in power.” What should centrists make of the worrying fact that, despite all he has done, his words are as true today as they were then?

2016年，马克龙先生写道：“如果我们不在五年或十年内振作起来，[勒庞女士]就会上台”尽管他做了这么多，但他的话今天和当时一样真实，中间派应该如何看待这一令人担忧的事实？One lesson is that complex trade­offs struggle to defeat slogans. Politics is so much about tribes and identity that material gains in terms of jobs and economic growth are necessary but not sufficient for re­election. Another is that one person cannot sustain the 。

radical centre. That is not only because too much is riding on each re­election and on a successor turning up, but also because, as centrists know, individuals are flawed. French centrism and its Anglo­American liberal cousins are systems. They require constant renewal, through argument and competition. Mr Macron still has our vote, but he needs company

一个教训是，复杂的权衡很难打败政治口号政治在很大程度上与部落和身份有关，就业和经济增长方面的物质收益是必要的，但不是连任的充分条件另一个是，一个人无法维持激进的中间派思想这不仅是因为每次连任和继任者的出现都有很大的影响，而且还因为，正如中间派人士所知，个人是有缺陷的。

法国的中间派和英美的自由派是一个系统它们需要通过争论和竞争不断地更新自己的理念马克龙先生仍然拥有我们的选票，但他需要同伴[江城1]n旗手; 领袖[江城2]主要特点;基本组成部分[江城3]温和主义，中间路线；中间派的政策;

[江城4]法国国家行政学院（ENA）成立于1945年10月，是在戴高乐将军的主持下，为重塑战后法国行政机器而创建的一所国家行政性公共事业机构 二战后的法国百废待兴，政府迫切需要一批德才兼备的人才来推动行政机器高效运转，实现法国复兴。

ENA的成立在当时满足了两大需求：一是设置统一竞试门槛，减少以往各部门在高级官员招聘中各自为政的混乱局面与任人唯亲的舞弊现象；二是为高级官员提供共同的卓越职业培训，可使其适应战后知识与技能的新发展 在法国，ENA和巴黎政治学院（巴政）是最主要的两所培养政治精英的院校。

不同的是，巴政以培养本科生和各级公务员为主，而ENA培养的则是领袖级人才以及具有从政经验的优秀青年官员，年龄一般在25岁以上（毕业时平均年龄为31.5岁），且已经拿到了其他精英学校的学位[江城5]据报道，在执政数月之后，马克龙的“朱庇特式”风格就曾引发媒体诟病。

曾于2012年出版著作《何为民主体制中的领袖》的哲学家让-克洛德莫诺(Jean-Claude Monod)接受法国《世界报》采访时表示，马克龙的执政风格介于“总统权威”和“威权主义”之间 莫诺认为，马克龙在某种程度上，同前任奥朗德试图树立的“正常总统”风格背道而驰，也同萨科奇那种追求无所不在的策略相反，马克龙严格控制自己抛头露面的频率。

这位总统试图像戴高乐一样，给总统职位带来“庄重感”和“距离感”迄今为止，他比较有效地树立了“朱庇特式”的风格[江城6]不自由的; 不容言论(或行动)自由的; 不开明的;